Jury predictions (14 November 2009)

Based on 84 observations of the judges we calculated the probabilities of each contestant staying in the show. Our results only reflex the jury's evaluation and (as we have shown before) these ratings have low predictive power. Nonetheless, here is the most recent list of the rankings by Dannii, Cheryl, Louis and Simon taken together, lets see if they are correct this time

Who will be on the chair this time?
Well, if we follow the judges we predict that John & Edward, Loydd and Jamie are the most likely to hit the chair, see graph below

Results so far, per group

Ok, all this quant stuff might seem strange, but here a simple overview of the data up to November 8 2009 shows. We have (panel) data on who went out the show and to which judge he or she belongs.

Louis is responsible for "group", Cheryl for "men", Dannii for "ladies" and Simon for the "old". What we have seen in the shows so far is that the groups of Louis has seen the highest OUT, followed by Dannii's ladies. The boys ("men") of Cheryl are doing better than expected, as are the above 25 (old) by Simon.

Which judges agree most and less?

In statistics we use so-called correlations to see if things have a simpel relationship. For instance, if we are interested in the judgement of a candidate by Simon, Cheryl, Dannii or Louis, we might wonder whom of these four agrees most with the other judges.

Interestingly, we find that the two ladies hold the closest opinions about the candidates. So, if Cheryl is very enthousiastic about a certain performance, Dannii is likely to agree with her, and vice versa. The two guys, Simon and Louis, are actually the ones who hold most dissimilar opinions about the candidates.

Using quantitative numbers, we have the following correlations based on 50 observations of season 6's live shows, where a correlation coefficient is always between 0 and 1, where 1 indicates that the judges hold the exact same evaluations and zero the exact opposite.

Dannii and Cheryl: 0.71
Dannii and Louis: 0.55
Cheryl and Louis: 0.52

Dannii and Simon: 0.44
Cheryl and Simon: 0.37
Louis and Simon: 0.25

Ranking judge toughness

Based on 189 observations of season 6 of the UK X Factor live shows, we have established that Simon definitely is the toughest judge. Based on a 5 point scale, his average candidate judgement is a 3.5. The two lady judges are scoring in between. Cheryl's average rating is a 3.8 and Dannii's a 3.9. Louis is the most enthousiatic judge in the show, giving the average candidate a 4.1 out of 5.

1. Simon (3.5)
2. Cheryl (3.8)
3. Dannii (3.9)
4. Louis (4.1)